This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Neilan’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Neilan | training | published before 2020 | 136 | 81 |
Neilan | validation | published 2020 | 29 | 16 |
Neilan | test | published after 2020 | 37 | 10 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Neilan | Capstone Games | 3.7% | 0.1% | 33.02 |
Neilan | Plaid Hat Games | 2.9% | 0.1% | 21.53 |
Neilan | Pandasaurus Games | 1.5% | 0.2% | 7.09 |
Neilan | ZMan Games | 9.6% | 1.4% | 6.84 |
Neilan | Asmodee | 16.2% | 2.6% | 6.29 |
Neilan | Race | 5.9% | 1.0% | 5.99 |
Neilan | Fantasy Flight Games | 6.6% | 1.1% | 5.76 |
Neilan | Civilization | 8.1% | 1.5% | 5.46 |
Neilan | Games With Solitaire Rules | 26.5% | 5.1% | 5.19 |
Neilan | Cooperative Game | 26.5% | 6.1% | 4.35 |
Neilan | Deduction Game | 17.6% | 5.0% | 3.52 |
Neilan | Open Drafting | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.86 |
Neilan | Word Game | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.28 |
Neilan | Hand Management | 43.4% | 20.0% | 2.16 |
Neilan | Dice Rolling | 14.7% | 28.5% | 0.52 |
Neilan | Simulation | 1.5% | 10.2% | 0.14 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.948 | no |
2 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.929 | no |
3 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.833 | no |
4 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.742 | no |
5 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.726 | no |
6 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.631 | yes |
7 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.611 | yes |
8 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.582 | no |
9 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.567 | no |
10 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.562 | yes |
11 | 2014 | 145371 | Three Kingdoms Redux | 0.515 | no |
12 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.514 | no |
13 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.465 | no |
14 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.454 | yes |
15 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.453 | no |
16 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.397 | no |
17 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.373 | no |
18 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.370 | no |
19 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.362 | no |
20 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.346 | no |
21 | 2016 | 205158 | Codenames: Deep Undercover | 0.324 | no |
22 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.320 | no |
23 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.307 | no |
24 | 2016 | 193037 | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 0.305 | yes |
25 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.296 | no |
26 | 2019 | 228328 | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev | 0.294 | no |
27 | 2016 | 182340 | Star Trek: Frontiers | 0.292 | no |
28 | 2006 | 25613 | Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization | 0.287 | no |
29 | 2018 | 256226 | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | 0.286 | no |
30 | 2016 | 203416 | Exit: The Game – The Pharaoh's Tomb | 0.274 | no |
31 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.273 | no |
32 | 2017 | 226522 | Exit: The Game – Dead Man on the Orient Express | 0.272 | yes |
33 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.271 | no |
34 | 2017 | 223931 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.262 | no |
35 | 2016 | 148261 | SeaFall | 0.261 | no |
36 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.260 | no |
37 | 2016 | 203417 | Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab | 0.258 | no |
38 | 2019 | 283934 | Exit: The Game – Theft on the Mississippi | 0.255 | no |
39 | 2017 | 215841 | Exit: The Game – The Forgotten Island | 0.232 | no |
40 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.232 | no |
41 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.232 | no |
42 | 2017 | 231197 | Raxxon | 0.230 | no |
43 | 2018 | 249821 | Codenames: Harry Potter | 0.229 | no |
44 | 2018 | 223750 | Hardback | 0.218 | no |
45 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.215 | no |
46 | 2019 | 274364 | Watergate | 0.212 | no |
47 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.211 | no |
48 | 2016 | 205398 | Citadels | 0.210 | no |
49 | 2016 | 198773 | Codenames: Pictures | 0.209 | no |
50 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.208 | yes |
51 | 2017 | 215842 | Exit: The Game – The Polar Station | 0.207 | no |
52 | 2015 | 182028 | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | 0.204 | yes |
53 | 2017 | 238065 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | 0.203 | no |
54 | 2013 | 124361 | Concordia | 0.200 | no |
55 | 2019 | 283294 | Yukon Airways | 0.198 | no |
56 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.191 | yes |
57 | 2019 | 282439 | Lux Aeterna | 0.188 | no |
58 | 2018 | 170604 | Renegade | 0.186 | no |
59 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.182 | no |
60 | 2016 | 203420 | Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin | 0.182 | no |
61 | 2015 | 163968 | Elysium | 0.181 | no |
62 | 2017 | 215840 | Exit: The Game – The Forbidden Castle | 0.180 | no |
63 | 2008 | 35677 | Le Havre | 0.176 | no |
64 | 2019 | 266936 | Slyville | 0.174 | no |
65 | 2014 | 150376 | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | 0.173 | yes |
66 | 2018 | 233080 | Book of Dragons | 0.166 | no |
67 | 2018 | 256916 | Concordia Venus | 0.166 | no |
68 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.165 | no |
69 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.163 | no |
70 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.163 | no |
71 | 2017 | 230059 | Crossfire | 0.159 | no |
72 | 2013 | 136280 | La Boca | 0.156 | no |
73 | 2015 | 155624 | Specter Ops | 0.155 | no |
74 | 2018 | 257321 | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | 0.153 | no |
75 | 2016 | 198928 | Pandemic: Iberia | 0.152 | no |
76 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.151 | no |
77 | 2019 | 256730 | Pipeline | 0.151 | no |
78 | 2019 | 271615 | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples | 0.149 | no |
79 | 2007 | 27173 | Vikings | 0.149 | no |
80 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.147 | no |
81 | 2018 | 246297 | Shadows: Amsterdam | 0.147 | no |
82 | 2018 | 245357 | Starship Samurai | 0.146 | no |
83 | 2018 | 256643 | Neon Gods | 0.146 | no |
84 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.142 | yes |
85 | 2018 | 218421 | Street Masters | 0.142 | no |
86 | 2019 | 283797 | Exit: The Game – The Stormy Flight | 0.141 | no |
87 | 2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.141 | no |
88 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.137 | no |
89 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.137 | no |
90 | 2019 | 269752 | Noctiluca | 0.135 | no |
91 | 2007 | 31260 | Agricola | 0.135 | no |
92 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.135 | yes |
93 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.134 | no |
94 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.133 | yes |
95 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.133 | yes |
96 | 2005 | 18833 | Lord of the Rings: The Confrontation | 0.133 | no |
97 | 2018 | 209660 | Dungeon Alliance | 0.131 | no |
98 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.130 | no |
99 | 2019 | 262141 | Dungeon Brawler | 0.128 | no |
100 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.128 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.87 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.74 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Neilan is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.948 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.929 | no |
2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.833 | no |
2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.742 | no |
2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.726 | no |
What games does the model think Neilan is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1630 | 2398 | Cribbage | 0.000 | yes |
1992 | 327 | Loopin' Louie | 0.001 | yes |
1969 | 5343 | Hang on Harvey! | 0.001 | yes |
2019 | 263736 | Warhammer Age of Sigmar: The Rise & Fall of Anvalor | 0.002 | yes |
2014 | 169654 | Deep Sea Adventure | 0.002 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Terra Mystica | Glass Road | Three Kingdoms Redux | Mysterium | Terraforming Mars | Gaia Project | Newton | Aftermath |
2 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Room 25 | Imperial Settlers | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Spirit Island | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | Tapestry |
3 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | Elysium | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Gloomhaven | Codenames: Harry Potter | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
4 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Concordia | Onirim (Second Edition) | Specter Ops | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Hardback | Maracaibo |
5 | Space Cadets | La Boca | King of New York | T.I.M.E Stories | Star Trek: Frontiers | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Renegade | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev |
6 | Archipelago | City of Remnants | Fields of Arle | Sylvion | Exit: The Game – The Pharaoh's Tomb | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Book of Dragons | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
7 | Mice and Mystics | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Abyss | Blood Rage | SeaFall | Exit: The Game – Dead Man on the Orient Express | Concordia Venus | Last Bastion |
8 | Urbion | Prosperity | Deception: Murder in Hong Kong | 504 | Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Everdell | Exit: The Game – Theft on the Mississippi |
9 | Android: Netrunner | Patchistory | Patchwork | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Exit: The Game – The Forgotten Island | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Watergate |
10 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Impulse | AquaSphere | March of the Ants | Aeon's End | Raxxon | Shadows: Amsterdam | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
11 | Clash of Cultures | Warhammer: Diskwars | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | FUSE | Citadels | Exit: The Game – The Polar Station | Starship Samurai | Yukon Airways |
12 | Suburbia | Forbidden Desert | Hyperborea | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Codenames: Pictures | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Neon Gods | Lux Aeterna |
13 | The Great Zimbabwe | The Ravens of Thri Sahashri | La Granja | Haspelknecht: The Story of Early Coal Mining | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Exit: The Game – The Forbidden Castle | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Slyville |
14 | Love Letter | Bruxelles 1893 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Bastion | Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin | Crossfire | Street Masters | Pipeline |
15 | Keyflower | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Burgenland | Mombasa | Pandemic: Iberia | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Rising Sun | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples |
16 | Zombicide | Eight-Minute Empire: Legends | Deus | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Black Orchestra | SpyNet | Dungeon Alliance | Crusader Kings |
17 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Nations | Linko! | Burgle Bros. | Hit Z Road | Codenames: Marvel | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Exit: The Game – The Stormy Flight |
18 | Smash Up | Caverna: The Cave Farmers | Five Tribes | Pirates of the 7 Seas | Beyond Baker Street | Fallout | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Noctiluca |
19 | Il Vecchio | Gunrunners | The Battle at Kemble's Cascade | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Scythe | Fire of Eidolon | Kakerlacula | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
20 | Farmerama | Train Heist | Arkwright | Orphan Black: The Card Game | Star Wars: Rebellion | Altiplano | The Grizzled: Armistice Edition | Era: Medieval Age |
21 | Freedom: The Underground Railroad | Gravwell: Escape from the 9th Dimension | The Captain Is Dead | The Martian Investigations | Exit: The Game – The Secret of the Premiere | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Exit: The Game – The Sinister Mansion | Dungeon Brawler |
22 | The Palaces of Carrara | Space Sheep! | Splendor | Unusual Suspects | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Exit: The Game – The Mysterious Museum | The Mind Extreme |
23 | Ginkgopolis | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Orléans | Treasure Hunter | Not Alone | Exit: The Game – The Sunken Treasure | Specter Ops: Broken Covenant | Tiny Towns |
24 | Le Havre: The Inland Port | Police Precinct | Akrotiri | Coffee Roaster | Cottage Garden | Exit: The Game – The House of Riddles | Lords of Hellas | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
25 | Yedo | Scotland Yard Master | The Golden Ages | Porta Nigra | Assembly | Indian Summer | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Cloudspire |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Neilan | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.762 |
Neilan | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.565 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.550 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.354 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.254 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.210 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.185 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.166 | no |
2020 | 295945 | Exit: The Game – The Cemetery of the Knight | 0.149 | yes |
2020 | 317372 | Exit: The Game – The Gate Between Worlds | 0.149 | no |
2020 | 317434 | Exit: The Game – Advent Calendar: The Mystery of the Ice Cave | 0.147 | yes |
2020 | 315954 | Hunt A Killer: Death at the Dive Bar | 0.131 | no |
2020 | 332782 | Cantaloop: Prequel | 0.119 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.113 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.113 | no |
2020 | 325555 | Cantaloop: Book 1 – Breaking into Prison | 0.112 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.104 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.102 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.098 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.096 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.095 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.086 | no |
2020 | 300001 | Renature | 0.083 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.083 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.080 | no |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.079 | yes |
2020 | 322809 | Diabolik: Heists and Investigations | 0.079 | no |
2020 | 283155 | Calico | 0.078 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.078 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.077 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.072 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.068 | no |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.065 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.065 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.065 | no |
2020 | 316622 | Gods Love Dinosaurs | 0.064 | yes |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.063 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.062 | yes |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.062 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 287033 | Gray Eminence | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 295488 | Andor: The Family Fantasy Game | 0.058 | no |
2020 | 296626 | Sonora | 0.058 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.058 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.055 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 309600 | Archers of Nand | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 296512 | The Game: Quick & Easy | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 295486 | My City | 0.052 | no |
2020 | 298607 | Crime Story: Vienna | 0.052 | no |
2020 | 312965 | Hogs of War: The Miniatures Game | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 312484 | Lost Ruins of Arnak | 0.049 | yes |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.719 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.657 | no |
3 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.467 | no |
4 | 2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.455 | no |
5 | 2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.333 | no |
6 | 2021 | 333516 | Exit: The Game + Puzzle – Nightfall Manor | 0.333 | no |
7 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.308 | no |
8 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.304 | no |
9 | 2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.294 | yes |
10 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.293 | no |
11 | 2021 | 324853 | Exit: The Game – Kidnapped in Fortune City | 0.258 | no |
12 | 2021 | 317432 | Exit: The Game – The Cursed Labyrinth | 0.258 | yes |
13 | 2021 | 343322 | Exit: The Game – Advent Calendar: The Hunt for the Golden Book | 0.249 | no |
14 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.232 | yes |
15 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.228 | no |
16 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.212 | yes |
17 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.208 | no |
18 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.187 | no |
19 | 2021 | 341583 | Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin | 0.186 | no |
20 | 2022 | 341573 | Exit: The Game – The Lord of the Rings – Shadows over Middle-earth | 0.186 | no |
21 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.178 | no |
22 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.177 | no |
23 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.159 | no |
24 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.150 | no |
25 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.144 | no |
26 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.142 | no |
27 | 2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.141 | no |
28 | 2022 | 322656 | burncycle | 0.137 | no |
29 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.132 | no |
30 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.131 | no |
31 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.126 | no |
32 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.122 | no |
33 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.121 | no |
34 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.120 | yes |
35 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.117 | no |
36 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.111 | no |
37 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.107 | yes |
38 | 2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.105 | no |
39 | 2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.103 | no |
40 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.103 | no |
41 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.101 | no |
42 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.101 | no |
43 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.099 | no |
44 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.097 | no |
45 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.093 | no |
46 | 2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.093 | no |
47 | 2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.092 | no |
48 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.092 | no |
49 | 2021 | 340455 | King of the Valley | 0.090 | no |
50 | 2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.090 | no |
51 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.089 | no |
52 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.089 | no |
53 | 2022 | 284118 | Mechanical Beast | 0.084 | no |
54 | 2022 | 352263 | Through Ice and Snow | 0.083 | no |
55 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.082 | no |
56 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.080 | no |
57 | 2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.080 | no |
58 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.079 | no |
59 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.079 | no |
60 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.078 | no |
61 | 2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.077 | no |
62 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.073 | no |
63 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.072 | no |
64 | 2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.072 | no |
65 | 2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.071 | no |
66 | 2022 | 350316 | Wayfarers of the South Tigris | 0.071 | no |
67 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.071 | no |
68 | 2022 | 316624 | Stationfall | 0.070 | no |
69 | 2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.070 | no |
70 | 2021 | 338760 | Imperial Steam | 0.068 | no |
71 | 2022 | 253759 | Paint the Roses | 0.068 | no |
72 | 2021 | 332181 | IQ Files: Pecados | 0.068 | no |
73 | 2021 | 325022 | Coffee Traders | 0.066 | no |
74 | 2021 | 332944 | Sobek: 2 Players | 0.065 | no |
75 | 2021 | 307305 | Bullet♥︎ | 0.065 | yes |
76 | 2021 | 305761 | Whale Riders | 0.065 | no |
77 | 2021 | 351155 | Recto Verso | 0.065 | no |
78 | 2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.065 | no |
79 | 2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.064 | no |
80 | 2023 | 298086 | The Fog: Escape from Paradise | 0.063 | no |
81 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.063 | no |
82 | 2022 | 324894 | Free Radicals | 0.063 | no |
83 | 2021 | 255984 | Sleeping Gods | 0.062 | yes |
84 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.061 | no |
85 | 2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.060 | yes |
86 | 2021 | 308493 | Relics of Rajavihara | 0.060 | no |
87 | 2022 | 343844 | Bullet⭐ | 0.060 | no |
88 | 2021 | 325698 | Juicy Fruits | 0.059 | yes |
89 | 2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.059 | yes |
90 | 2021 | 283242 | The Whatnot Cabinet | 0.058 | no |
91 | 2021 | 342547 | Mystery Games: Der verfluchte Geburtstag | 0.058 | no |
92 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.058 | no |
93 | 2021 | 318560 | Witchstone | 0.058 | no |
94 | 2021 | 221298 | NewSpeak | 0.058 | no |
95 | 2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.057 | no |
96 | 2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.057 | no |
97 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.056 | no |
98 | 2021 | 299838 | The Belgian Beers Race | 0.056 | no |
99 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.056 | no |
100 | 2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.056 | no |